April 23, 2020

DECLINE IN GLOBAL TRANSMISSION RATES OF COVID-19

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Using a deterministic-stochastic hybrid model, Romero-Severson et al found a declining transmission rate in 42 of the 51 examined countries, suggesting that global scale social distancing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are effective and need to be strengthened or maintained. 
• This study indicates that outbreaks can grow rapidly if social distancing measures are completely relaxed, and emphasizes the need for alternative strategies to control the virus beforehand. 

Romero-Severson et al. (Apr 18, 2020). DECLINE IN GLOBAL TRANSMISSION RATES OF COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Apr 23 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070771