Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 23, 2020

Sustaining Social Distancing Policies to Prevent a Dangerous Second Peak of COVID-19 Outbreak

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  • Projections made from SEIR epidemic model suggest that, even when infection rates appear to be slowing down or decreasing, prematurely relaxing social distancing policies produces a severe second peak far worse than the first. The study suggests that a longer-term initial period of restrictive social distancing coupled with a gradual reduction in the severity of social distancing would be more effective in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak.

Feng et al. (Apr 22, 2020). Sustaining Social Distancing Policies to Prevent a Dangerous Second Peak of COVID-19 Outbreak. Pre-print downloaded Apr 23 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069351