Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 24, 2020

Modest effects of contact reduction measures on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in 2 the most affected European countries and the US

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  • The authors analyzed the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infection and death cases to estimate the daily reproduction numbers (Rt) and the effectiveness of control measures in the most affected European Countries and the US. They report that calculating Rt based on both the daily number of infections and deaths provides a more reliable estimates than those based on infection cases alone. Death based Rt estimates are less susceptible to testing bias or limited capacities. 

Ensser et al. (Apr 24, 2020). Modest effects of contact reduction measures on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in 2 the most affected European countries and the US. Pre-print downloaded Apr 24 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.20067538