Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 27, 2020

Assessing suppression strategies against epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model

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  • This new extended epidemic SEIR model quantifies distinct measures by comparing several suppression approaches and potential exit strategies that may be used during lockdown to revive the economy while keeping the pandemic under control. 
  • The authors conclude that; while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such as social distancing, active protection and removal can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitative approach is useful in supporting the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions. The paper also provides an interactive online tool that researchers and decision makers can use to simulate diverse scenarios.

Proverbio et al. (April 25, 2020). Assessing suppression strategies against epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model. Pre-print downloaded April 27 from: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075804