Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 27, 2020

Influenza-Negative Influenza-Like Illness (fnILI) Z-Score 1 as a Proxy for Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19

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  • SARS-CoV2 test shortages preclude implementation of a robust surveillance system in the US.  Mirza et al. used the derivative influenza-negative influenza-like illness (fnILI) z-score from the CDC as a proxy for incident cases and disease-specific deaths to determine the burden of disease. They report that, for every unit increase of fnILI z-score, the number of cases increased by 70.2 and number of deaths increased by 2.1. They conclude that fnILI data may serve as an accurate outcome measurement to track the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, and may allow for informed and timely decision-making on public health interventions.

Mirza et al. (April 27 2020). Influenza-Negative Influenza-Like Illness (fnILI) Z-Score 1 as a Proxy for Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19. Preprint downloaded April 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075770