Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 28, 2020

Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Areas

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  • This IHME study describes modeling techniques used to estimate the trajectory of COVID-19 deaths as a function of social distancing, hospital and ICU admissions, length of stay, and ventilator need.  Excess medical demand in the US is predicted to peak at 9,079 total beds and 9,356 ICU beds, and ventilator use is predicted to peak at 16,545.  Death peaks vary from March 30 through May 12 by state.
  • These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate gaps, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (April 26, 2020). Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Areas. Pre-print downloaded Apr 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20074732