Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 30, 2020

Evaluation of “stratify and shield” as a policy option for ending the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK

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  • McKeigue and Colhoun suggest that a ‘stratify-and-shield’ policy–a strategy that would shield elderly and others at high risk of severe disease, while allowing immunity to build up in those at low risk until the entire population is protected– has potential to save lives, and restore economic activity. 
  • In spite of key uncertainties about the theoretical impact, such as the infection fatality ratio, extent to which infection confers immunity, and performance of a classifier based on medical records, the authors propose that this policy should be considered as an alternative to adaptive social distancing.  

McKeigue & Colhoun (Apr 30, 2020). Evaluation of “stratify and shield” as a policy option for ending the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK. Pre-print downloaded Apr 30 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079913