Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 1, 2020

The COVID-19 Epidemic, Its Mortality, and the Role of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

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  • This review discusses the importance of understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 (e.g., using the basic reproduction number (R0) to estimate the overall number of people likely to be infected). Although there is considerable uncertainty, model-based predictions of changes in transmission over time can provide insights into the epidemiological situation, support policy makers to develop a resilience strategy for the period until effective pharmaceutical interventions are available, and identify whether outbreak control measures are having a measurable effect. 

Hens, Vranck, and Molenberghs. (May 1, 2020). The COVID-19 Epidemic, Its Mortality, and the Role of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. European Heart Journal: Acute Cardiovascular Care. https://doi.org/10.1177/2048872620924922