Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 4, 2020

The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread State of Georgia Case Study

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  • Keskinocak et al. develop an agent-based simulation model populated using COVID-19 specific parameters and data from Georgia on agent’s interactions and demographics. The simulation covered a 6-month period and tested different social distancing scenarios and a combination of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with varying timelines and compliance levels. 
  • The combined interventions of shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine both delayed and reduced the peak infection by up to 3 months and by 40%. Regardless of shelter-in-place duration, increasing voluntary quarantine compliance can decrease cumulative infection rate by 50%.  

Keskinocak et al. (May 3, 2020). The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread State of Georgia Case Study. Pre-print downloaded May 4 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084764