Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 5, 2020

COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns

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  • An agent-based simulation (FRED – Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) was used to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA in a variety of scenarios including case isolation at home, school closure, and social distancing. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave.  Even if daily confirmed cases dropped to one digit, daily incidence can peak again to 874 cases in the absence of imported cases.  

Lee. (May 4, 2020). COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns. Preprint downloaded May 5 from Medrxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20080838