May 5, 2020

Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Ngonghala et al. predict that use of face masks with efficacy ≥ 70% (e.g. surgical masks) could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 80% of the U.S. residents use such masks in public consistently. The use of lower–efficacy masks (e.g. cloth masks with <30% efficacy) could still lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 cases, but would not lead to elimination. The best model scenarios reduced cases by 64% only if the strict social distancing measures were maintained until the end of May or June 2020. This study shows that early termination of the strict social distancing measures could trigger a second wave of COVID-19 cases. 

Ngonghala et al. (May 1, 2020). Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. Mathematical Biosciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364