Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 6, 2020

A Simple Method for Estimating the Number of Unconfirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Local Area that Includes a Confidence Interval: A Case Study of Whatcom County Washington

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  • Swanson and Cassman estimate the number of positive, unconfirmed COVID-19 cases in Whatcom County, Washington and construct a confidence interval around the estimate, using a previously established method employed by demographers to estimate a population in the absence of a census count. On April 25, 2020, when Whatcom County had reported 284 confirmed cases, the authors estimate that there were 2,670 (95% CI 2,025 – 3,936) unconfirmed positive cases. 

Swanson & Cossman. (May 5, 2020). A Simple Method for Estimating the Number of Unconfirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Local Area that Includes a Confidence Interval: A Case Study of Whatcom County Washington. Pre-print downloaded May 6 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20086181