Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 7, 2020

Internet Search Patterns Reveal Clinical Course of Disease Progression for COVID-19 and Predict Pandemic Spread in 32 Countries

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  • Analysis of global internet search patterns in 32 countries across six continents detected a robust temporal pattern of a progression of search terms related symptoms that matches the clinical course of COVID-19.  
  • Earliest-peaking search terms were combinations of “fever”, “cough”, “coronavirus symptoms”, and “coronavirus test.” There was an average lag of 5-days between increases in searches for “fever” and “cough” and the increase in searches for “shortness of breath”.  
  • Increases in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths followed increases in searches related to COVID-19 symptoms by 18.53 (95% CI 15.98, 21.08) and 22.16 days (95% CI 20.33, 23.99), respectively. 

Lu and Reis. (May 6, 2020). Internet Search Patterns Reveal Clinical Course of Disease Progression for COVID-19 and Predict Pandemic Spread in 32 Countries. Pre-print downloaded May 7 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087858