Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 8, 2020

Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States

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  • Basu et al. fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time in 116 US counties and estimated the symptomatic infection fatality rate among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) to be 1.3% (95% CI 0.6-2.1%). Estimates by county varied from 0.5% to 3.6% (estimated IFR-S for seasonal flu is 0.1%). 
  • The author acknowledges the conservative nature of the estimate and that the overall IFR would be lower, since cases that recover without symptoms are not accounted for in their model. 

Basu. (May 7, 2020). Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States. Health Affairs (Project Hope). https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455