Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 11, 2020

How many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the US if its interventions were as effective as those in China and South Korea?

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  • Liu et al. modeled how many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the US if the US had implemented comprehensive and strict lockdown measures like in Wuhan, China or widespread testing as in South Korea.  
  • Researchers estimate that if these measure were implemented at the early stage of the outbreak (March 10), 99% (1.15 million) fewer cases could have been expected by the end of the epidemic. If actions were taken on April 1, this number could have decreased to 66% (with the China-like scenario) and 73% (with South Korea-like scenario), highlighting the importance of early interventions and the need for swift response. 

Liu et al. (May 11, 2020). How many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the US if its interventions were as effective as those in China and South Korea? Pre-print downloaded May 11 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092981