May 12, 2020

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

• Using an age-stratified model calibrated to Seattle, Washington in which social distancing interventions reduced contacts for 6 weeks, interventions started earlier in the epidemic were found to delay the epidemic curve, while interventions started later flattened the epidemic curve. Even with only modest reductions in contacts among adults (20-59 years), interventions averted 20% of new cases, and most hospitalizations and deaths. However, the modeled epidemic rebounded when interventions ended, suggesting that social distancing interventions must be implemented in conjunction with testing and contact tracing.  

Matrajt and Leung. (Apr 28, 2020). Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease. Emerging Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201093