Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 13, 2020

Estimating Excess 1-Year Mortality Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic According to Underlying Conditions and Age: A Population-Based Cohort Study

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Topic:

  • Banerjee et al. estimate the excess 1-year COVID-19 mortality under different scenarios by levels of transmission suppression and relative risk (RR) of mortality above the baseline level using electronic health records from 3.8 million people in UK. 
  • Based on a population-based cohort study 20% of the population is in the high-risk category (aged >70 years or aged £70 years with at least one underlying condition). Baseline 1-year mortality (absence of COVID-19) is estimated at 4.46% (95%CI 4.41–4.51) in the high-risk category. 
  • Basic methods are provided to estimate expected increases in mortality under different scenarios of increased mortality risk. 

Banerjee et al. (May 12, 2020). Estimating Excess 1-Year Mortality Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic According to Underlying Conditions and Age: A Population-Based Cohort Study. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30854-0