Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 13, 2020

Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality A New York State Modelling Study

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  • Hoffman modeled the effect of unidentified infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State. Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by unidentified infections with a peak basic reproductive number of 5.7.  
  • Reduction of social distancing by >50% below current levels would result in increased mortality. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. 

Hoffman. (May 12, 2020). Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality A New York State Modelling Study. Pre-print downloaded May 13 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505