Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 15, 2020

Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak – New York City, March 11-May 2, 2020

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  • Applying a seasonal periodic model (as used for monitoring seasonal influenza) to estimate expected deaths, Olson et al. found that 24,172 out of 32,107  (75%) deaths in New York City from March 11-May 2, 2020 were in excess of what would have been expected. Of these 24,172 deaths, 13,831 (57%) were laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated and 5,048 (21%) were probable COVID-associated. The remaining 5,923 (22%) excess deaths may be directly or indirectly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Olson et al. (May 15, 2020). Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak – New York City, March 11-May 2, 2020. MMWR. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6919e5