Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 18, 2020

Relaxing Lockdown Measures in Epidemic Outbreaks Using Selective Socio-Economic Containment with Uncertainty

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  • Albi et al. used an SIR-type compartmental model with a social structure modified with appropriate feedback controls to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in relation to the resumption of SARS-CoV–2 spread.  
  • This model generates simulations that are in agreement with the current epidemic scenarios in countries including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. The inclusion of uncertainty about the actual value of the number of infected people makes it possible to analyze the effects of the potential reopening of productive and social activities at different times.  
  • The model suggests that countries such as the US that are still in an epidemic situation should maintain lockdown measures before moving to a second phase while countries such as German could gradually reopen social and economic activities while maintaining epidemic control. 

Albi et al. (May 16, 2020). Relaxing Lockdown Measures in Epidemic Outbreaks Using Selective Socio-Economic Containment with Uncertainty. Pre-print downloaded May 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.12.20099721