May 20, 2020

Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in California and the U.S. with Reporting Delays

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Worden et al. used a model to determine that transmission in many areas in the US may not yet be controlled despite stable or declining case counts. Based on data available on May 9, 2020, the only states to have achieved a threshold at which the epidemic fades out (Rt < 1) are New York, Michigan, New Jersey, and Louisiana. The model uses the Wallinga-Teunis method and accounts for uncertainty in delays from symptom onset to case reporting to estimate time varying reproduction number (Rt) in counties and regions in California and in other states over time.  

Worden et al. (May 19, 2020). Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in California and the U.S. with Reporting Delays. Pre-print downloaded May 20 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.14.20101162