Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 20, 2020

Susceptible Supply Limits the Role of Climate in the Early SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

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  • Baker et al. applied a climate-dependent epidemic model with parameters drawn from endemic coronaviruses and influenza to understand the potential climate dependence of SARS-CoV-2. The global model provided detailed results for nine cities. Researchers found that the extent to which the population builds immunity remains the fundamental driver of peak incidence during the pandemic phase, while climate plays a modest role in affecting the size of the pandemic outbreak and efficacy of control measures. 

Baker et al. (May 18, 2020). Susceptible Supply Limits the Role of Climate in the Early SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc2535