Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 21, 2020

Modeling the Effects of Intervention Strategies on COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics

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  • Compared to continuous and intermittent social distancing, Kennedy et al. found that a “stepping-down” strategy was the best long-term strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping down strategy modeled cycles of restriction and loosening of social distancing behaviors. A stepping-down strategy also reduced the total required social distancing time by 6.5% compared to the other strategies. An 80-day period of social distancing was more effective than a 40-day period. However, these results depend on 50% of people engaging in personal protection measures (e.g., wearing a facemask, proper hand hygiene). 

Kennedy et al. (May 10, 2020). Modeling the Effects of Intervention Strategies on COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics. Journal of Clinical Virology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104440