May 26, 2020

A Score-Based Risk Model for Predicting Severe COVID-19 Infection as a Key Component of Lockdown Exit Strategy

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Dagan et al. used retrospective data from all COVID-19 patients diagnosed by April 1, 2020 in a large healthcare organization (n=2,421) to develop a tool that sums over 10 risk factors to predict risk of severe COVID-19 illness or death (basic risk, high risk, very high risk). The risk score had similar sensitivity to detect severe cases of COVID-19 disease compared to the CDC criteria ( 92% versus 96%) but resulted in far fewer members of the general population who would be classified as being at high risk of  COVID-19 disease. Such a risk score could enabling better targeting of risk mitigation strategies while planning a lockdown exit strategy.  

Dagan et al. (May 23, 2020). A Score-Based Risk Model for Predicting Severe COVID-19 Infection as a Key Component of Lockdown Exit Strategy. Pre-print downloaded May 26 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20108571