Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 27, 2020

Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 Data Reveals Higher Infection Prevalence Rates and Lower Fatality Rates than Widely Reported

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Neil et al. use a Bayesian technique called “virtual evidence” to test the sensitivity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) to two significant sources of uncertainty: survey quality and COVID-19 death counts. This approach estimates an IFR that is higher than widely reported values. For Santa Clara, CA and Chelsea, MA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%.  

Neil et al. (May 26, 2020). Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 Data Reveals Higher Infection Prevalence Rates and Lower Fatality Rates than Widely Reported. Pre-print downloaded May 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.25.20112466