Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 27, 2020

Inferring the Effective Start Dates of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during COVID-19 Outbreaks

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Kohanovski et al. applied an SEIR model to infer the effective start dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions and found that they often differ from the official dates. They hypothesize that late effects may be due to low compliance or prolonged time to adopt and organize for a lockdown. Early effects may be due to early adoption of social distancing and similar behavioral adaptations. These results highlight the complex interaction between personal, regional, and global determinants of behavioral response to an epidemic.  

Kohanovski et al. (May 26, 2020). Inferring the Effective Start Dates of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during COVID-19 Outbreaks. Pre-print downloaded May 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.24.20092817