Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 27, 2020

Modeling Countermeasures for a Balanced Reopening in King County, Washington

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Rosenfeld et al. use a new model (Covasim) to simulate population-level SARS-CoV-2 transmission expected with reopening and the extent to which measures including testing, tracing, and quarantine can prevent exponential growth in King County, WA. 
  • Distancing and other measures have reduced the transmission potential of COVID-19 on April 25th to 33% (30-37%) of early-pandemic levels. Increased testing, contact tracing to home and work, and better compliance with household quarantine beginning on May 26th could counterbalance a two-fold increase in work and community transmission from the level estimated on April 25th. 

Rosenfeld et al. (May 25, 2020). Modeling Countermeasures for a Balanced Reopening in King County, Washington. IDM. Report downloaded May 27 from https://covid.idmod.org/data/Modeling_countermeasures_for_balanced_reopening_King_County_Washington.pdf