Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 27, 2020

Are We #stayinghome to Flatten the Curve



  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Statewide stay-at-home policies induced “mandate effects” of 4.1%-5.9% declines in travel and visits to non-essential businesses relative to pre-COVID-19 levels for the first four states to introduce such policies (CA, IL, NJ, NY).  
  • By the time of statewide stay-at-home mandates in many states, residents had already reduced travel by considerable amounts relative to pre-COVID-19 levels. 
  • A 1% reduction in visits to non-essential businesses is associated with 9.2 fewer deaths per 100 million per day. This corresponds to 74,000 lives saved nationwide and an economic benefit of $249-$745 billion from deaths averted by observed behavioral changes in March and April. 

Sears et al. (May 26, 2020). Are We #stayinghome to Flatten the Curve. Pre-print downloaded May 27 from