Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 8, 2020

Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Demand for Hospital Services in the UK: A Modelling Study

Category:

Topic:

  • Davies et al. used a transmission model to estimate that without mitigation measures 23 million cases and 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19 would occur in the UK by December, 2021. School closures, physical distancing, shielding people aged 70 or older, and isolation of symptomatic cases, in combination, was projected to reduce cases and deaths, but repeated periods of phased lockdowns would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent healthcare demand from exceeding capacity.  

Davies et al. (June 2020). Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Demand for Hospital Services in the UK: A Modelling Study. The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30133-X