June 9, 2020

Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

• Flaxman et al. studied the impact of major non-pharmacological interventions across 11 European countries and estimated that recent interventions have been sufficient to achieve epidemic control and drive the reproduction number (Rt) from an initial average of 3.8 across all 11 countries to an average of 0.66. Lockdown measures had a large impact on transmission with an estimated 81% reduction.  
• They estimate that between 12 and 15 million individuals in the 11 countries (3% – 4% of the population) were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 4th, 2020. 

Flaxman et al. (June 8, 2020). Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7