Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 11, 2020

Effects of Proactive Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks in 58 Cities, China

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  • Du et al. estimated the speed of COVID-19 containment for 58 cities in mainland China outside of Hubei* Province, which deployed 7 different types of social distancing interventions over the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. Results showed the mean (+SD) time elapse between the first confirmed case and the implementation of the first social distancing intervention was 13 (+4.7) days. The mean time until successful containment was 21 (+7) days after the first reported case and 8 (+6.8) days following the initiation of interventions.  
  • They found a 1-day delay in implementing the first intervention was associated with prolonging an outbreak by 2.4 (95%CI 1.0–3.9) days. This highlights the potential long-term benefits of early and decisive action to implement potentially costly social distancing measures. 

Du et al. (June 9, 2020). Effects of Proactive Social Distancing on COVID-19 Outbreaks in 58 Cities, China. Emerging Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.201932 

*Changed from “Hebei” in primary manuscript based on review by Lit Rep team.