Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 15, 2020

Effect of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] VoPham et al. used nationwide smartphone GPS data for 3,054 counties (94%) in all 50 states and Washington, DC, to estimate county-level social distancing based on (1) change in average distance traveled (per device), (2) change in non-essential venue visitation (e.g., hair salons), and (3) the probability that two users were in close proximity. 
  • Stay-at-home orders were associated with a 35% increase in social distancing score (p<0.001). Higher social distancing score was associated with 29% reduction in COVID-19 incidence (aIRR=0.71, 95%CI 0.57, 0.87) and a 35% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (aIRR=0.65, 95%CI 0.55, 0.76).  

VoPham et al. (June 12, 2020). Effect of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US. Pre-print downloaded June 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.10.20127589