Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 17, 2020

A Predictive Tool for Identification of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-Negative Emergency Department Patients Using Routine Test Results

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  • Joshi et al. built a predictive tool for identifying SARS-CoV-2 PCR-negative emergency department patients based on sex and components of a complete blood count (a routinely-conducted test). Across a range of specificities, they found the average negative predictive value (NPV) to be 98% when validated on a northern California sample (41 positive, 495 negative). Applying the Northern California-defined threshold to samples of patients from Seattle, Washington, Chicago, Illinois, and South Korea, NPV was between 92-99% and sensitivity was 85-89%. By restricting PCR testing to predicted positive patients, the tool allowed a 33% increase in properly allocated resources.  

Joshi et al. (June 2020). A Predictive Tool for Identification of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-Negative Emergency Department Patients Using Routine Test Results. Journal of Clinical Virology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104502