Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 22, 2020

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of the Population at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19 Due to Underlying Health Conditions in 2020: A Modelling Study

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  • Clark et al. used prevalence data from two large multi–morbidity studies and estimated that 1.7 billion (uncertainty interval (UI) 1.0–2.4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying health condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19. The increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. 

Clark et al. (June 15, 2020). Global, Regional, and National Estimates of the Population at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19 Due to Underlying Health Conditions in 2020: A Modelling Study. The Lancet Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30264-3