Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 23, 2020

Characterizing Super-Spreading Events and Age-Specific Infectivity of COVID-19 Transmission in Georgia USA

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Lau et al. use surveillance, geolocation, and aggregate mobility data from five counties in Georgia (US) to estimate unobserved parameters, including date of infection and transmission pathway. They estimate R0 to be 2.88 (95%CI 1.85, 4.9) before a state-wide shelter-in-place order, and <1 two weeks after the order. 
  • They estimate that 2% of cases may have resulted in 20% of infections, suggesting the presence of super–spreading events, with those younger than 60 years of age more than twice as likely to transmit as those 60 years or older. 

Lau et al. (June 22, 2020). Characterizing Super-Spreading Events and Age-Specific Infectivity of COVID-19 Transmission in Georgia USA. Preprint downloaded June 23 from  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.20.20130476