Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 24, 2020

COVID-19 Lockdown: If, When, and How



  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Moyorga et al. evaluated the impact of different timings and lengths of lockdown periods under scenarios using different values of R0, the basic reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2. They found that the timing for the lockdown has a large effect on ICU usage and fatalities. As R0 increases, an earlier lockdown is needed to control the outbreak, while in lower R0 scenarios later lockdowns are still effective. A lockdown of <15 days long had a negligible effect in reducing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the healthcare system. However, lockdowns >45 days had diminishing returns on their effect of reducing ICU usage and fatalities. 

Mayorga et al. (June 23, 2020). COVID-19 Lockdown: If, When, and How. Pre-print downloaded June 24 from