Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 24, 2020

The End of Social Confinement and COVID-19 Re-Emergence Risk

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  • Results from a stochastic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission developed by Lopez et al. suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for a minimum of 60 days, followed by a gradual reintroduction of the workforce. The authors found that social distancing, face masks, gloves and other individual protection measures have a massive impact in reducing the current peak of active cases, but that waning adherence to these interventions over time could result in a larger second epidemic wave. 

López and Rodó. (June 22, 2020). The End of Social Confinement and COVID-19 Re-Emergence Risk. Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8