June 25, 2020

A Mathematical Model Reveals the Influence of Population Heterogeneity on Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• A modeling study found that heterogeneity in contact rates among population groups can significantly affect the overall level of disease-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2 that develops in the population. Britton et al. estimate that if R0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. 

Britton et al. (June 23, 2020). A Mathematical Model Reveals the Influence of Population Heterogeneity on Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810