Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 25, 2020

Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States



  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Neofotistos and Kaxiras characterized the US’s pandemic response at the state level using a multi-wave model, and classified states into three classes. The District of Columbia and 19 other states are classified as declining, where several smaller waves of infection follow a large initial wave. Thirteen states (one of which is Washington State) are classified as stationary, where an initial large wave is followed by waves that do not systematically decline or increase. Eighteen states are classified as exhibiting an increasing trend of reported cases. 

Neofotistos and Kaxiras. (June 25, 2020). Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States. Pre-print downloaded June 25 from