Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 29, 2020

General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Zhan et al. developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Confirmed-Recovered model that incorporates both intercity travel and insufficient testing to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the US and Japan, using data through March 20. The authors found that the ratio of detected to undetected cases may be as high as 1:5 in the US and that without an increase in interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19, 18% of the US population would eventually be infected.  

Zhan et al. (June 2020). General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance. https://doi.org/10.2196/18880