June 29, 2020

How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• Rawson et al. applied an optimal control framework to an adapted SEIR model framework to evaluate the efficacy of lockdown release strategies in the UK. They found simultaneous release of the entire population to be a high-risk strategy, with gradual re-integration preferred. Among gradual re-integration strategies, releasing approximately half the population 2-4 weeks after the end of the initial peak, then waiting 3-4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing the second half of the population was found to be superior to a “on-off” strategy, whereby lockdown is ended for the entire population, then re-established if infections become too high.  

Rawson et al. (2020). How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach. Frontiers in Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00262