Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 2, 2020

The Impact of Contact Tracing and Household Bubbles on Deconfinement Strategies for COVID-19 an Individual-Based Modelling Study

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Willem et al. adapted an individual-based model that accounts for repetitive leisure contacts in extended household settings (so called “household bubbles”) to simulate interactions between the 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at the level of households, workplaces, schools and communities.  
  • They found that household bubbles have the potential to reduce the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions by up to 90%. The effectiveness of contact tracing depends on its timing, as it becomes futile more than 4 days after the index case develops symptoms. Assuming children (<18 years of age) to be half as susceptible as adults, (partial) school closure options have relatively little impact on COVID-19 burden.  

Willem et al. (July 2, 2020). The Impact of Contact Tracing and Household Bubbles on Deconfinement Strategies for COVID-19 an Individual-Based Modelling Study. Pre-print downloaded July 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.01.20144444