Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 6, 2020

Association between Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the USA: A Mathematical Modelling Study

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  • Across 25 US counties with high COVID-19 case numbers from January 1 to April 20, 2020, aggregated cell phone data was used to define a mobility ratio (MR) as the change in the number of individual trips made per day, relative to ordinary behavioral patterns before COVID-19. 
  • The MR varied from 0.35 in New York City to 0.63 in Harris County, TX. There was a high correlation (>0.7) between decreased mobility and reduced case growth rates in 20 of 25 counties.  

Badr et al. (July 1, 2020). Association between Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the USA: A Mathematical Modelling Study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30553-3