Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 15, 2020

COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States



  • [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) team used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions at the state level from July to December 31 2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046–649,582) by December 31st, 2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur in five states: California, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Virginia. The model indicates that an emphasis on universal mask use may reduce epidemic resurgences in many states, saving as many as 102,795 (95%CI 55,898 to 183,374) lives.  

IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team (July 14, 2020). COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from