Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 15, 2020

COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States

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  • [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) team used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions at the state level from July 5 to December 31 2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046–649,582) by December 31st, 2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur in five states: California, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Virginia. The model indicates that an emphasis on universal mask use may reduce epidemic resurgences in many states, saving as many as 102,795 (95%CI 55,898 to 183,374) lives.  

IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team (July 14, 2020). COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States. Pre-print downloaded July 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151191