Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 24, 2020

State-Level Impact of Social Distancing and Testing on COVID-19 in the United States

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using a transmission dynamic model calibrated to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths from March to June, Chiu et al. found that most states were able to achieve R1<1 through stay-at-home orders. However by June 20, only 19 states and the District of Columbia were on track to control COVID-19 at current levels of re-opening, 24 or the remaining 31 states needed to double their current testing and/or contact tracing to control COVID-19, and 7 of these 24 also needed to restrict social contact by another 25%.   

Chiu et al. (July 2020). State-Level Impact of Social Distancing and Testing on COVID-19 in the United States. Pre-print downloaded July 24 from https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-40364/v1