Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

July 29, 2020

Threshold Analyses on Rates of Testing Transmission and Contact for COVID-19 Control in a University Setting

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  • [pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Zhao et al. simulated epidemic projections of a potential COVID-19 outbreak in a university population of 38,000 persons. They estimated that the threshold number of contacts per person per day was 10 to prevent excess deaths in a scenario with a maximum capacity of trace and test of 50% and a 5.4% chance of transmission rate per contact per day. Further reducing the number of daily contacts to 4 or fewer allowed for up to a 6-day delay from the time of infection to diagnosis and isolation without loss of epidemic control.  
  • The authors suggest that these threshold estimates may help develop on-campus scheduling and indoor-spacing plans in conjunction with plans for asymptomatic testing for COVID-19.  

Zhao et al. (July 25, 2020). Threshold Analyses on Rates of Testing Transmission and Contact for COVID-19 Control in a University Setting. Pre-print downloaded July 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.21.20158303