Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 4, 2020

Determining the Optimal Strategy for Reopening Schools, the Impact of Test and Trace Interventions, and the Risk of Occurrence of a Second COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in the UK: A Modelling Study

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  • Panovska-Griffiths et al. appplied the Covasim model (developed by the Institute for Disease Modeling) to simulate six scenarios for the UK representing a combination of school reopening strategies and contact tracing and testing coverage. Under full re-opening of schools, if 68% of contacts could be traced, 75% of symptomatic individuals would need to be tested (and positives isolated) to prevent a second wave. If only 40% of contacts could be traced, 87% would need to be tested. In a rotation scenario where 50% of students attend school on alternate weeks, slightly fewer contacts would need to be traced.  
  • The results were largely robust to changing the assumptions about infectiousness of children and young adults.  

Panovska-Griffiths et al. (Aug 2020). Determining the Optimal Strategy for Reopening Schools, the Impact of Test and Trace Interventions, and the Risk of Occurrence of a Second COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in the UK: A Modelling Study. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30250-9