August 4, 2020

Was School Closure Effective in Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

• Iwata et al. fit a time series model to case data through March 31 to assess effectiveness of school closure in Japan. They assumed the effect of school closures on March 1st would become apparent 9 days following closure.  They found the expected daily change in the number of cases pre- versus post-school closures was 0.08 (95% CI -0.36, 0.65). As this estimate was greater than zero, the authors concluded school closures did not reduce incidence; however, the estimations had wide confidence intervals and results may lack precision.  

Iwata et al. (July 2020). Was School Closure Effective in Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.052