Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

August 5, 2020

Estimating the Reproductive Number R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and Eight European Countries and Implications for Vaccination

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  • [pre-print, not peer reviewed]  Ke et al. estimate that the herd immunity threshold needed to prevent sustained transmission of COVID-19 ranges between 73% and 84%. Based on these estimates and evidence that immunity may not be long-lasting, they suggest the need for repeated waves of vaccination. If mass vaccination achieves 85% immunity that lasts approximately one year, vaccination campaigns will need to occur multiple times a year. Annual vaccination or vaccination every two would be sufficient to maintain herd immunity if the mean duration of individual immunity is 3 years.  

Ke et al. (Aug 4, 2020). Estimating the Reproductive Number R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and Eight European Countries and Implications for Vaccination. Pre-print downloaded on August 5 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.31.20166298v1