August 11, 2020

Projected Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Public Health Interventions to Prevent Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Canada

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• An age structured agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 in a generalized Canadian setting found that the only intervention scenario that consistently kept hospitals and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths, and eliminated the epidemic was continuation of case detection and contact tracing, continuation of physical distancing, and reimplementation of restrictive measures. Extending school closures had minimal effects in the general population but did reduce transmission in schools. Extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic. 

Ng et al. (Aug 9, 2020). Projected Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Public Health Interventions to Prevent Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Canada. Canadian Medical Association Journal. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.200990